Swiss Franc (CHF) Exchange Rate Falls as Currency Is Deemed Overvalued

The Swiss Franc (CHF) fell to its lowest level in a month against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and a three-week low against the Euro (EUR) on Tuesday; as comments made last week by Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan continued to weaken the currency.

In a speech made in Bern last Friday, Mr Jordan reiterated that the Swiss Franc remains significantly overvalued against its major peers, and that its strength is creating major difficulties for the national economy.

‘We will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary in order to influence monetary conditions. The negative interest rate in Switzerland will fulfil a very important role of reducing upward pressure on the Swiss Franc, thereby supporting the Swiss economy,’ Jordan said.

The Swiss Franc weakened further due to speculation that the SNB was intervening in the market to weaken the currency. The amount of cash Swiss commercial banks hold with the Swiss National Bank hit the highest level on record last week when the Franc marked its biggest fall in two months. The sharp movement added to speculation that the central bank may have intervened in the market.

The Swiss Franc was unable to make any gains against the Pound Sterling despite the release of data; showing that the UK economy expanded at a slower pace than forecast in the first quarter of 2015.

According to the London based Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK GDP expanded by just 0.3% in the three months through March, and a slowdown from the 0.6% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2014. The growth rate was the slowest rate recorded since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Economists had been forecasting that the UK economy would see expansion of 0.5%. On an annual basis, the UK economy grew by 2.4%, below forecasts for 2.6% and well below the 3% growth rate seen in the final quarter of 2014.

‘Given that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are hoping that many undecided voters will ultimately decide to vote for them due to their management of the economy, this marked slowdown in growth is particularly unwelcome news coming just over a week before the general election,’ said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

The UK currency was also continuing to receive support from a poll released on Monday, which showed that the Conservative Party was ahead with 36% of the vote compared to Labour’s 30%. With the outcome of the vote impossible to call, the Pound is likely to experience volatility ahead of next week’s election.

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Josh Ferry Woodard

After leaving university in 2011 Josh briefly worked as a currency analyst in the South West of Cornwall. Josh continued monitoring the currency markets and publishing exchange rate analysis after moving to London in 2012, with a particular focus on the impact of economic and political stimuli on forex. Josh was a regular contributor to The Telegraph’s weekly currency feature for several years.

Contact Josh Ferry Woodard


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