Last week saw the Pound Sterling to Norwegian Krone (GBP/NOK) exchange rate move steadily upwards and the Pound has also taken a definitive lead against the Krone this week. The price of crude oil per barrel has factored heavily into the movement of the rate, along with the relatively unsupportive UK data seen so far this week.
Last week, the Pound slid to 12.6158 against the Norwegian Krone due to a disappointing result for the UK Governmental Public Sector Net Borrowing result for September, in addition to the Public Finances result for the same month. In both cases, borrowing by the government showed little sign of decreasing; Public Financing rose to £17.9bn from £0.7bn, while the Public Sector Net Borrowing result only showed a small decrease from August’s figure of £10.8bn to £8.6bn in September.
Despite this, Sterling received an economic lifeline on Thursday when the UK Retail Sales figures for September came in; sales were shown to have increased 1.7% on the month following the previous month’s -0.7% decline and a yearly rise from 3.2% to 5.9% was also recorded.
This week, Sterling has been dealt a pair of bad hands with the negative UK Loans for House Purchases on Monday and the UK Q3 GDP today. In spite of this, a rise up to 12.9804 has been seen against the Krone, although this is likely due more to low oil prices and a strong US Dollar.
Over last week and this week, the price of crude oil has been a hindering factor on the Krone’s performance; since October 20th the price has been on the slide, dropping from over $46.00 to nearly $42.50.
For the rest of this week, Pound Sterling/Norwegian Krone exchange rate movement may occur as a result of Wednesday’s Norwegian Q3 Business Confidence, September Retail Sales and August Unemployment Rate results, along with Thursday’s UK Mortgage Approvals for September and Friday’s UK Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for October.
For Norway, a decline to -12 points has been forecast with the Business Confidence result, along with an improving situation in the outcome for Retail Sales. With the Unemployment Rate, a minor deterioration has been forecast in the form of a rise from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Looking further ahead, Thursday’s Mortgage Approvals for the UK are expected to rise slightly on the previous result by posting a 72.5k figure up from 71k. At the end of the week, the Confidence Survey is also cautiously optimistic with a rise from 3 points to 4 on the cards.