Business FX Bulletin: Risk Aversion Bolsters US Dollar

  • Damp Market Sentiment Dominates Currency Movement
    Damp Market Sentiment Dominates Currency Movement

  • Sterling Softens after Services Growth Slows Beyond Expectations
    Sterling Softens after Services Growth Slows Beyond Expectations

  • Euro Strengthens despite Mixed Domestic Data
    Euro Strengthens despite Mixed Domestic Data

  • US Dollar Advances on Safe-Haven Demand
    US Dollar Advances on Safe-Haven Demand

GBP/EUR – Pound Softens after British Services Output Slows

After gaining earlier in the week off the back of disappointing inflation data for the Eurozone and a positive UK construction report, the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate edged lower on Wednesday. With the exception of commodity-correlated assets, the Pound softened versus its major peers after domestic data failed to impress. Of particular disappointment was December’s Services PMI which dropped from 55.9 to 55.5, defying the market consensus of 55.6. December’s Composite PMI also declined despite positive British construction output. Although the Pound softened in response to the weak data, the depreciation was somewhat limited considering services output is still comparatively robust. Looking ahead, British data is somewhat thin on the ground for the remainder of this week. Friday’s British Trade Balance data will be most likely to provoke Sterling volatility.

GBP/USD – ‘Cable’ Softens ahead of FOMC Meeting Minute

he Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate extended previous declines as trading conditions returned to normal following the Christmas break. After weak data out of China increased worries regarding China’s economic slowdown, demand for safe-haven assets has seen the US Dollar advance versus most of its major peers. Aiding the appreciation was positive results from December’s ADP Employment Change and November’s Trade Balance. A massive -11.6% slump in MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending January 1st had minimal impact thanks to risk-aversion. Later during the North American session the US Dollar is likely to see volatility in response to the publication of minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which saw the first Fed benchmark rate hike in nearly a decade. There will be several influential US data publications during the remainder of this week, including the always hotly anticipated Change in Non-Farm Payrolls report.

USD/GBP – Strengthens on ‘Brexit’ Concerns

Uncertainty regarding the forthcoming referendum on the UK’s European Union membership is having a detrimental impact on Sterling demand. If Prime Minister David Cameron fails to negotiate better terms of the membership the Pound is likely to slump amid concerns from businesses. Many fear that a ‘Brexit’ will cause London-based international businesses to leave the UK. In addition, a ‘Brexit’ may also see a dramatic decline in foreign investment. With the US Dollar gaining in response to speculation that the Fed will hike the benchmark interest rate at least twice during 2016 there is a very real chance that the USD/GBP exchange rate will reach fresh multi-year highs.

EUR/USD – Euro Steady against US Dollar, Recovers from CPI Flop

Wednesday’s European economic data produced a mixed bag of results, but the EUR/USD exchange rate was able to stabilise following previous losses ahead of key US data. Although French and Italian data failed to meet with median market forecasts, German and Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs eclipsed expectations. The EUR/USD exchange rate is likely to see significant volatility in response to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite and the FOMC meeting minutes.

 

 

 

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Laura Parsons

Laura has been working in the financial services sector since 2012 and provides currency news updates for a number of online and print publications. Over the years she has produced exchange rate analysis for publishers like French Property News, The Express, The Telegraph and Forbes.

Contact Laura Parsons


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