In the face of some fairly volatile trading conditions, the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate has moved between highs of 99.0940 and lows of 97.5921.
Cameron’s Victory Inspires Short-Lived GBP Gains
The most notable story coming out of the UK last week covered the much-anticipated outcome of the UK referendum negotiations, which reached a head due on Friday at an EU summit.
While economists and speculators alike were on the fence over whether PM David Cameron would firstly be able to secure a settlement at all and secondly secure a set of conditions that favoured the UK, the PM was ultimately successful in both aspects, to some extent.
With the date of the referendum set for June 23
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, it remained for the PM to complete the final formality of announcing the summit outcome to a chamber of MPs.
Boris Johnson Fallout Continues Today as BoE Adds to Uncertainty
This week, the Pound has crashed against the Rupee and virtually every other major peer, on account of London Mayor Boris Johnson announcing his support for the ‘Out’ campaign. The influential politician’s decision panicked investors to the extreme and it is only today that the Pound has made something resembling a recovery.
Today, the Pound has been held back from rallying against the competition due to the testimony of Bank of England (BoE) policymakers in the Houses of Parliament. Among others, Governor Mark Carney has entertained the idea of cutting the UK interest rate to 0% and expanding quantitative easing targets in order to stimulate growth in the UK economy. While purely hypothetical at this stage, the comments nonetheless lowered the appeal of the Pound considerably.
Indian Rupee Dealt Mixed Hand by Economic Announcements
The previous week’s movement for the Indian Rupee was largely middling in its nature, as while the price of oil hit a high of $33 per barrel on Wednesday, it fell to a low under $32 by the end of the week.
In terms of domestic data, the Rupee was initially devalued by the WPI inflation, food, fuel and manufacturing results for January, all of which fell on previous printings.
Friday was far more positive for the Rupee’s prospects, as both the deposit and bank loan growth figures for February rose on previous outcomes.
The week so far has been fairly quiet for the Rupee, as while the price of oil has fluctuated as per usual, the Indian currency has been unable to capitalise on this due to a simple shortage of domestic data.
On the wider scale, however, President Pranab Mukherjee has stated that his nation is a ‘haven of stability in an increasingly turbulent global economy’.
This Week’s GBP/INR Exchange Rate Forecast
For the current week, Pound Sterling/Indian Rupee exchange rate movement may occur as a result of Thursday’s UK Q4 annual GDP figure, which is currently expected to reprint at 1.9%, as well as Friday’s Gfk consumer confidence survey for February, which was expected to fall from 4 points to 3 at the time of writing.
On the Indian side, the only economic announcement of note will be Friday’s foreign reserves figure for February; no predictions have been made for the outcome at the time of consulting.