- GBP exchange rates volatile on ‘Brexit’ uncertainty
- EUR rates cool as ECB initiates corporate bond purchases
- USD static on political uncertainty
- Federal Reserve interest rate decision to drive market volatility next week
GBP/EUR – Trending Narrowly on Subdued Market Trade
With Sterling becoming increasingly sensitive to EU referendum developments, and with opinion polls producing divergent results, GBP/EUR exchange rate volatility has reached multi-year highs. Last week was generally poor for the British asset as opinion polls suggested that the ‘Leave’ campaign would be victorious in the referendum. This week has seen continued Sterling volatility, but a slight recovery can be attributed to polls showing that the vote will be close. On Wednesday of this week there was some positive data results for the UK, a welcome relief from a slew of disappointing ecostats. Both Manufacturing and Industrial Production bettered expected growth in April. However, UK reports are only likely to have a limited impact on Sterling demand ahead of the EU Referendum on June 23rd.
GBP/USD – Gains on Improved Risk Appetite
Last week the US Dollar struggled versus its major peers amid speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to delay a cash rate increase in the face of weaker labour market conditions. After Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech that was neither dovish nor hawkish, however, the US Dollar made a fractional recovery. Traders will now be looking ahead to next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision. Today has seen the GBP/USD exchange rate tick higher despite US Mortgage Applications advancing by 9.3% in the week ending June 3rd. The lack of demand for the US Dollar can be linked to improved market sentiment after China’s import data indicated that the Far East nation’s economic woes are abating.
USD/GBP – Political Uncertainty Weighs on USD
In addition to improved trader risk-appetite, the US Dollar also struggled today in response to political uncertainty. Hillary Clinton cemented her position as Democratic presidential candidate after winning the California primaries, ready to face Republican front-runner Donald Trump in the race to the White House. Both candidates are seen as controversial and both have divided opinion within their own parties. As a result, the outcome is likely to be difficult to predict. With a lack of influential ecostats pertaining to either the US or UK for the remainder of Wednesday, traders will be looking ahead to Thursday’s British trade data to gauge volatility.
EUR/USD – Climbs despite ECB Bond Buying Uncertainty
Whilst ‘Brexit’ uncertainty hasn’t had a huge impact on the Euro, there is potential for EU referendum related volatility to hit the single currency as we draw ever closer to the June 23rd vote. For now, however, the Euro has cooled versus many of its major peers in response to the initiation of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) corporate bond purchases. There is mounting uncertainty regarding the programme’s effectiveness given that the ECB has not revealed how large the purchases will be, and many analysts predict that there won’t be enough bonds for the central bank to purchase.