The Pound to Norwegian Krone exchange rate managed to recover its recent losses as the end of the week approached.
Pound to Krone Trading Rallies on Surging UK Sales Activity
Sterling rose by 0.4% against the Norwegian Krone on Thursday, following the release of Confederation of British Industry (CBI) retail figures.
Forecasts had been for a slowdown in reported retail sales from 9 points to 6, but the final result instead rose strongly to 38.
This triggered a wave of optimism, but the good news had a few stings in the tail.
As well as the CBI forecasting lesser sales activity in May, it was highlighted that the April measuring period was not calendar-adjusted, suggesting a high degree of inaccuracy.
French Election Boost Fails to Keep NOK Demand High
The Krone initially spiked against the Pound on French Presidential election news on Monday, but has since lost ground due to falling crude oil prices.
Brent crude staged a brief recovery on Monday, but has fallen back down to the $50.50 per barrel mark.
Norwegian domestic data has been similarly negative, showing a rise in February’s unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%.
GBP/ NOK Exchange Rate Forecast
Pound/Krone exchange rate movement may next occur following Friday’s UK GDP figures.
Next week’s news will include the UK Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) from Tuesday to Thursday.
UK GDP growth in the first quarter has mixed forecasts, with estimates for an annual rise coming next to predictions for a minor quarterly slowdown.
Economists have been concerned that rising UK inflation could negatively impact UK economic activity, which could theoretically lower GDP growth if it gets too severe.
Annual figures usually have greater influence, so unless the yearly figure falls unexpectedly then the Pound could rise off Friday’s GDP news.
Next week’s PMIs, which measure economic activity, will cover the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. Services is the greatest of these three; it previously showed growth but traders could panic if it lurches down to the 50-point barrier which separates growth and contraction.
The main Norwegian announcements will be Friday’s retail sales and unemployment stats, along with a manufacturing PMI on May 2
nd
. Next week’s closing Krone movement will come on Friday’s Norwegian central bank interest rate decision.
The only notable prediction has been for a drop in March’s retail sales from 1% to -0.1%. This could lower confidence in the Krone going into the long weekend.
Given these quiet economic conditions, any price shifts in Brent crude oil could have the greatest influence over the Krone. Recent movement has seen sharp losses since mid-April, but a surprise NOK-boosting rise is not out of the question.