Pound Rises as Markets Judge Brexit Risks Fully Priced-in

Pound Edges Higher as Markets See GBP Weakness as Overdone

The Pound was largely on strong form yesterday, despite a lack of UK data to provide markets with any fresh incentive to favour Sterling.

However, with GBP having recently tumbled to lows against its peers, the markets appear to have fully accounted for the uncertainty facing the economy and the potential pitfalls of Brexit. This means that the downside risks facing Sterling have lessened, giving some the confidence to return to the UK asset.

The latest UK consumer price index figures are due out shortly. Forecasts are for an acceleration in price growth, although not by enough to force the Bank of England (BoE) into raising interest rates any time soon, so GBP could weaken.

GBP/EUR Rebounds as ECB Coeure Warns of Loose Monetary Policy for Some Time

Having recently struck a fresh post-Brexit low, the GBP/EUR exchange rate was able to register strong gains yesterday.

The Euro was on mixed form thanks to a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) member Benoit Coeure, who warned that Eurozone monetary policy was likely to remain loose for some time to come.

Other policymakers, via remarks prepared for speeches later in the week, were more optimistic, but GBP transpired to have the stronger tailwinds, although the Euro did rack up notable gains versus some of its other peers.

A speech from ECB official Vitor Constancio is the only event on the Eurozone economic calendar today.

GBP/USD Loses Gains as Hurricane Irma Softens

After an initial spike, the GBP/USD exchange rate spent most of the day on the decline, closing below opening levels.

There was no US data of note released, but markets judged from early reports that Hurricane Irma would prove to have been left devastating than initially feared.

With the prospect of less economic damage – which could have impacted the Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding interest rates – to plague US businesses, appetite for the US Dollar improved.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for August will be released later this morning.

GBP/CAD Weakens on Strong Canadian Housebuilding Data

The Pound was pushed gradually lower against the Canadian Dollar throughout the course of yesterday after some positive domestic data improved appetite for CAD.

August housing starts data showed an uptick on the month to 223,000 against forecasts of a weakening to 216,000.

This helped buoy hopes that the economy remains strong enough for the Bank of Canada (BOC) to retain its confident outlook on monetary policy after last week’s surprise interest rate hike.

GBP/AUD Choppy, Makes Late Gains on Falling AU Consumer Confidence

It was a turbulent day yesterday for GBP/AUD, although the exchange rate ended the London session roughly back where it started.

The Pound was able to gain overnight thanks to the latest ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index for Australia, which show sentiment weakening from 114.1 to 109.8 during the week ending September 10th.

Today’s Australian data has already been released and GBP/AUD could benefit from a slump in Australian business confidence, presuming the UK CPI doesn’t send markets fleeing from the Pound.

Large Uptick in New Zealand Haulage Activity Fails to Undermine GBP/NZD

Like GBP/AUD, the Pound’s overall performance against the New Zealand Dollar was uninspiring yesterday. The evening’s New Zealand data failed to boost the ‘Kiwi’, despite showing a sharp rise in haulage activity in August.

New Zealand food prices growth figures will be released late tonight. Food price growth accounts further just under a fifth of consumer price growth in New Zealand, so a rise here would indicate building inflationary pressures and a stronger CPI reading next time round. This could support NZD higher.

Data Released Today

09:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

09:30 GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

11:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (AUG)

14:45 EUR ECB Vice President Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt

23:45 NZD Food Prices (MoM) (AUG)

" width="100" height="100" layout="fixed">
Josh Ferry Woodard

After leaving university in 2011 Josh briefly worked as a currency analyst in the South West of Cornwall. Josh continued monitoring the currency markets and publishing exchange rate analysis after moving to London in 2012, with a particular focus on the impact of economic and political stimuli on forex. Josh was a regular contributor to The Telegraph’s weekly currency feature for several years.

Contact Josh Ferry Woodard


Related
Do Not Sell My Personal Information