The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate appreciated by around 350 pips last week to strike a 14-month high as a hawkish shift at the Bank of England led to a surge in demand for Sterling.
Rising UK Inflation Gets the Ball Rolling
‘Cable’ rallied 75 pips last Tuesday following the latest UK CPI report, which showed that price pressures jumped from 2.6% to a joint-four-year high of 2.9% in August. The figure beat forecasts of 2.8% and gave UK rate hike expectations a mild boost.
Wednesday saw British unemployment print at a new 42-year low of 4.3%. However, rate hike bets were dealt a blow by below-consensus average earnings figures. The earnings print of 2.1% signalled a -0.5% fall in real wages because inflation had been running at 2.6% during the month of July.
Demand for Sterling suffered following the report because negative real wage growth is likely to dampen consumer spending trends and subsequently weigh on domestic growth.
Hawkish BoE Paves Way for November Rate Hike, Sending Sterling Soaring Vs. US Dollar
The Pound strengthened by around 200 pips versus the ‘Greenback’ on Thursday as markets responded positively to strong hints that the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates in November.
The BoE left rates on hold due to a 7-2 vote against shifting borrowing costs in September, but the minutes revealed that ‘monetary policy could need to be tightened by a somewhat greater extent… than current market expectations’.
Later on in the day Governor Mark Carney confirmed that the possibility of a near-term rate hike had definitely increased, which added further weight to the shift in BoE policy expectations.
The surge in rate hike bets meant that a better-than-anticipated US consumer price index score of 1.9% was unable to give the US Dollar a boost versus the Pound.
GBP/USD rallied again on Friday, striking its highest level since the Brexit vote, as one of the most dovish members of the BoE’s rate-setting team gave a speech indicating that he was prepared to back a rise in rates in the near future.
Gertjan Vlieghe said that ‘we are approaching the moment the bank rate may need to rise’ and suggested that more than one round of monetary tightening would be required if the domestic economy develops as the bank anticipates.
Federal Reserve Unlikely to Raise Rates This Week
The main event to look out for on the economic calendar in terms of ‘Cable’ this week is Wednesday evening’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. In recent months markets have pushed back their Fed policy expectations and the US Dollar has suffered as hopes of another 2017 rate hike have receded. A 25 basis point rate rise this week could seriously boost the appeal of the ‘Greenback’. However, this outcome appears unlikely at this stage.
Given the large 350-pip gains made by GBP/USD last week, it could be difficult for Sterling to press ahead significantly higher, but we should see the Pound hold onto most of its recent appreciation.