Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP to Continue Last Week’s Gains vs EUR, USD with the Budget Looming?

GBP Exchange Rate Headlines

Pound Sterling exchange rates have been lacklustre due to an absence of data but GBP sentiment remains positive.

Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate weakens on firming Eurozone outlook – current account and construction data beat forecasts.

Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate ends the week higher, however strong US homebuilding data curbs Pound’s gains.

Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate soft despite Canadian inflation data – price growth slows in October.

Pound Sterling Exchange Rates Cling to Week’s Earlier Gains as Data Dries Up

After recording some initial gains, Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rates began to soften throughout the day as the global economic calendar started providing other currencies with incentives to rise.

There was nothing scheduled for publication concerning the UK, but after its recent slump the British Pound had room to recover and was able to end the week higher versus its major peers.

There is nothing of note on the UK economic calendar today, but tomorrow’s government borrowing figures are likely to cause volatility for Sterling given that the Budget follows on Wednesday.

GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Slips as Trade Data Confirms Brighter Eurozone Outlook

The Pound to Euro exchange rate ended Friday down on the week’s best levels, but over a cent above its lowest point.

Appetite for the Euro was strong after the latest trade figures for the Eurozone showed a much larger current account surplus than expected during September. Construction output also bettered forecasts during the same month.

Even the usual cautious comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi failed to have much of a negative impact on the common currency.

Speeches from several members of the ECB, including Draghi, could keep the Euro on the move today.

Strong US Housebuilding Data Undermined Early GBP/USD Exchange Rate Gains

After an early spike, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate lost its gains and was unable to recover by the end of the session.

GBP/USD still ended the week in a strong position, although the significantly above-forecast US housing starts and building permits figures for October kept the US Dollar buoyant.

The Dollar could find some support this morning from the October leading index, which is expected to rise from -0.2% to 0.6%.

GBP/CAD Fails to Benefit from Canadian Inflation Slowdown

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate was largely sluggish on Friday, despite disappointing Canadian data creating an opportunity for GBP to advance.

Canada’s October consumer price index showed the expected slowdown in price growth from 0.2% to 0.1% on the month and from 1.6% to 1.4% year-on-year.

Canadian wholesale sales figures tomorrow will be the first data release of the week and are likely to weigh on the Canadian Dollar due to the mild slowdown forecast.

Pound Sluggish Versus Australian Dollar despite Cool Risk Appetite

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate was on slow form heading into the weekend, with Sterling failing to capitalise on opportunities to advance.

Thursday’s mixed labour market data was still proving a drag on the Australian currency, while strength in the US Dollar further softened market appetite for risky currencies.

The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index could give the Australian Dollar some support later, although markets may overlook the data and focus on tomorrow’s speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe.

GBP/NZD Inches Higher as US Dollar Appetite Saps ‘Kiwi’ Strength

The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate entered the week higher, despite early morning gains having largely evaporated by the end of the session.

With no data on the New Zealand calendar and positivity surrounding the US Dollar, Sterling was able to benefit from limp demand for the ‘Kiwi’.

GBP/NZD could gain tomorrow if the mid-afternoon results of the latest dairy auction weaken the New Zealand Dollar with a drop in milk prices.

Data Affecting Today’s GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

14:00 EUR ECB’s President Draghi speaks in Brussels

15:00 USD Leading Index (OCT)

22:30 AUD ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (NOV 19)

09:05 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Gives Speech in Sydney

09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (OCT)

13:30 CAD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (SEP)

NZD Dairy Auction Avg. Winning Price MT (NOV 21)

NZD Dairy Auction Whole Milk Powder MT (NOV 21)

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Laura Parsons

Laura has been working in the financial services sector since 2012 and provides currency news updates for a number of online and print publications. Over the years she has produced exchange rate analysis for publishers like French Property News, The Express, The Telegraph and Forbes.

Contact Laura Parsons


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