Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate News: AUD Forecast to Advance on Falling Jobless Rate

Chance of Further Australian Dollar Gains against US Dollar (AUD/USD) ahead on Unemployment Rate Stats

The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate has seen a minor rise today, as uncertainty in the US drives up demand for riskier currencies.

This AUD-supporting rise in risk sentiment has mainly been triggered by continued concerns about the state of relations between the United States and China.

Domestically, the Australian Dollar has been partly supported by hopes that the unemployment rate will be reported to have fallen when figures are released on Thursday.

Cautious Outlook of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Philip Lowe Limits AUD/USD Exchange Rate Rise

Although the Australian Dollar (AUD) has advanced against the US Dollar (USD) today, the pairing has been partly held back by the latest RBA minutes.

The Australian central bank has largely repeated its previous cautious outlook, which has left economists unimpressed.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has stated that the next change to interest rates could be a hike, but as this isn’t a new statement, and it has failed to boost Australian Dollar exchange rates.

US Dollar to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate (USD/AUD) Dips on Trump’s Currency Devaluation Comment

Today’s minor losses in the US Dollar to Australian Dollar exchange rate (USD/AUD) have been caused by signs of continuing tensions between the US and China.

Fears of a trade war with China have eased since last week, but US President Donald Trump has again raised concerns by accusing China and Russia of currency devaluation.

The accusation once again raises the risk of a protracted trade war breaking out between the US and China, which has hit most US Dollar exchange rates today.

Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Will AUD Rise Further on Unemployment Rate Drop?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could extend its current gains against the US Dollar (USD) in the near-term, leading to a better AUD/USD exchange rate by the end of the week.

Australian jobs market data will be released on 19 April and, given current forecasts, the ecostats might end up boosting Australian Dollar exchange rates.

Australia’s unemployment rate is predicted to have fallen in March, from 5.6% to 5.5%.

The lowest Australian jobless rate in recent months has been 5.4%, but a forecast-matching reduction to 5.5% could still raise confidence among Australian Dollar traders.

Lower unemployment raises the chances of employers increasing salaries, which in turn boosts the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike.

US Dollar Forecast: Can Federal Reserve Speeches Trigger USD/AUD Exchange Rate Rally?

For the rest of the week in the US, the main focus for US Dollar (USD) traders will be on a number of speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Remarks from Fed members will be coming from today onwards, with some of the speakers being active voters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2018.

If most Fed policymakers support multiple US interest rate hikes in 2018, then the US Dollar to Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) exchange rate could rise significantly.

One of the voting Fed members, William Dudley, has recently backed three or four total rate hikes in 2018.

If Mr Dudley’s fellow officials echo this sentiment then the US Dollar could rally over the rest of the week.

Given how many potentially supportive Fed speeches are on the way, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could see overall losses against the US Dollar (USD) this week.

Adam Solomon

Adam joined the team at TorFX soon after graduating from University in 2005 with a degree in Journalism. Since then Adam has advanced to become both Head of Trading and Head of Treasury. His keen interest in the currency market and knowledge of what drives exchange rates makes him perfectly positioned to produce regular market updates focused on the movements of the major currencies.

Contact Adam Solomon