Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) Exchange Rate Tumbles despite Low Demand for Risky Currencies
Despite rising US-China trade war concerns this week, the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate has tumbled since Wednesday as bearish positions on the Indian Rupee (INR) fell slightly.
US-China trade fears and a lack of general appeal in the Rupee made it easier for GBP/INR to advance from the interbank rate of 90.43 to 91.49 last week. GBP/INR even touched on a month and a half high of 91.71 on Monday.
Since then though, the Indian Rupee has seen stronger demand as analysts continue to see the currency as oversold. At the time of writing on Thursday, GBP/INR was trending near a weekly low of 90.58.
Investors slightly unwound bearish bets against the Rupee, despite news that the US-China trade war was seeing further escalations.
Overall, the emerging market currency further benefitted from weaker oil prices and speculation that it had been oversold.
Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Limp amid Lack of Fresh Support
The Pound (GBP) outlook has been little changed since Tuesday’s session, when political jitters faded and the latest UK economic data came in to relatively optimistic reception.
Investors were relieved that it appeared UK Prime Minister Theresa May would likely weather any potential no-confidence vote or leadership challenge, and EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier showed confidence that a UK-EU Brexit deal could be formed in the coming months.
Tuesday’s UK ecostats were also generally optimistic, with May’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results showing gradual improvement over figures from earlier in the year, although UK production did unexpectedly weaken in May.
Brexit concerns persisted despite cooling geopolitical fears, as many British businesses still don’t feel they have been assured about their future operations post-Brexit.
Ultimately, Sterling has been limp in recent sessions as investors await more currency driving news.
Indian Rupee (INR) Exchange Rates Recover despite Trade Nerves
The Indian Rupee (INR) has pushed the Pound (GBP) lower since Wednesday, despite a general market move away from emerging markets.
US-China trade war concerns worsened this week when US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports – and China has already indicated it intends to introduce countermeasures.
However, while this news would typically make risky emerging market currencies unappealing the Indian Rupee has still climbed.
Analysts have perceived the Indian Rupee has been oversold this year, so the INR recovery rally that began this week has persisted despite the trade fears as investors buy it from its lows.
Lower prices of oil have also made the Rupee more appealing, with India importing most of its oil.
Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) Forecast: Key Indian Data and Bank of England Speculation in Focus
Unless there are surprising Brexit developments or comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials regarding monetary policy, the Pound (GBP) is unlikely to see much of a shift in direction this week.
The Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate is more likely to remain focused on developments in US-China trade war news, but upcoming Indian data could also prove influential.
India’s May industrial production and manufacturing production stats will be published later in Thursday’s session, as well as the key June inflation rate.
If Indian inflation rises as expected, this may give investors more reason to buy the Rupee.
Friday’s Indian trade balance results from June could influence INR trade too, especially if the data shows fewer signs than expected of India’s economy being impacted by the global trade row.
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jon Cunliffe will be holding a speech on Friday, so any unexpected comments about Britain’s monetary policy outlook could influence the Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate.