Surprise Contraction in UK Public Sector Borrowing Cheers GBP Investors
There was some positive news for the Pound (GBP) this morning when the latest public sector borrowing requirement figures were released.
The Office for National Statistics data revealed that the government borrowed £3.6bn in September, down from £4.7bn in August, and below expectations of £4.60bn.
This means that total government borrowing amounts to £19.9bn so far this year, which is down by over £10.7bn from the same point last year, giving Chancellor Philip Hammond plenty of ammunition for his war chest in the upcoming Autumn Budget on 29 October.
The GBP/EUR pairing edged higher on the news, although it has since fallen back and is trading close to its opening level.
Italian Budget Drama Continues to Limit Euro (EUR) Appetite
Over in continental Europe, Italy’s continuing budget impasse is still causing problems for the EU and dissuading investors from backing the Euro.
The standoff has flared up today, with several EU leaders openly criticising the Italian government over its austerity-busting budget, which contravenes European Commission rules imposed on deficits.
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was forthright in his criticism of Italy’s budget proposals, saying:
‘We have no understanding whatsoever for Italy’s draft budget plan.’
He wasn’t the only critic, with former Eurogroup chief, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, warning that an Italian budget crisis would lead to an ‘implosion’ within the country’s fragile banking sector.
Italy was not supposed to be on the agenda at the recent EU summit in Brussels, but the ongoing impasse has brought it to the fore, with the worry being that the Eurozone’s second most indebted nation (after Greece) could cause ructions within the shared currency bloc.
GBP/EUR Outlook: Brexit Still in the Spotlight as Euro Traders to Focus on PMIs
Looking at next week’s trading session, there is not a great amount of UK economic data being released, which is likely to leave GBP investors keeping their eye on Brexit developments.
As ever, if any positive signs of a deal emerge that is amenable to all parties the Pound (GBP) will likely appreciate markedly.
In the absence of any noteworthy UK data however, EUR investors will be anticipating the Eurozone’s latest PMI figures towards the middle of the week.
Wednesday’s Markit manufacturing, services and composite Eurozone PMIs are expected to be broadly positive, so if forecasts prove correct we could see some Euro appreciation in the GBP/EUR pairing.
There exists further potential for the single currency to appreciate in the second half of the week as focus turns to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest rate decision.
Coming on Thursday, although investors are not expecting any changes to the interest rate they will be listening closely for any details about when the European Central Bank will be wrapping up its bond-buying programme, with any hawkish indications liable to send the Euro higher.