Will a Weak US Payroll Reading Boost the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate?

Pound Sterling (GBP) Flat with UK Political Uncertainty in Focus

The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range yesterday as a lull in UK economic data put the Conservative leadership election back in the spotlight.

This unsurprisingly left Sterling with little upside potential, as the ongoing uncertainty and apparent rising risks of a no-deal Brexit saw investors unwilling to make any bullish bets on the currency.

Coming up this morning we have the release of the UK’s latest house price index, which could drag on the Pound if the UK’s housing market weakened again in June as forecast.

GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Steady as Eurozone Retail Sales Disappoint

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remained flat throughout Thursday’s session as the single currency was left directionless after Eurozone retail sales were shown to have contracted again in May.

This was particularly worrying for EUR investors given that strong consumer spending was a large contributing factor in the Eurozone’s surprisingly robust start to 2019.

In the absence of any notable economic data today, Euro movement is likely to be driven by a speech from Luis de Guindos. If the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) remains dovish in his outlook for the Eurozone the Euro dip before the weekend.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Flat Ahead of US Payroll Figures

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was mostly rangebound yesterday as the closure of US markets for the 4th of July celebrations resulted in thin trade in the ‘Greenback’.

This lull in movement was also due to USD investors awaiting the release of the latest US non-farm payroll figures later this afternoon.

Following on from a dramatic slump in May, economists are forecasting only a modest rebound last month, something which may limit the appeal of the US Dollar today as it may do little to deter the Federal Reserve from moving ahead with a number of rate cuts this year.

GBP/CAD Exchange Rate Rangebound as Oil Prices Dip

The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate remained in a neutral range yesterday, with the oil-sensitive ‘Loonie’ struggling to find support as crude prices continued to retreat from their recent highs.

Looking ahead, the release of Canada’s latest employment figures is likely to drag on CAD exchange rates later this afternoon as economists forecast that employment growth will have slowed again in June.

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Muted as Commodity Prices Retreat

The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate remained subdued overnight on Thursday, as a slide in commodity prices combined with caution ahead of this afternoon’s US payroll data left little appetite for the ‘Aussie’.

GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Steady Ahead of US Data

The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate also held steady overnight, with a lull in risk appetite ahead of the US payroll data limiting the appeal of the ‘Kiwi’.

Data Releases

08:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (Jun)

09:00 EUR ECB Guindos Speech

13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jun)

13:30 USD Non-farm Payrolls

Matthew Andrews

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