Pound Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Muted as Investors await BoE Bailey Speech

(Updated 16:45 25/11/21)

The Pound Canandian Dollar (GBP/CAD) has continued to show limited movement today, as further reports of rising inflation placed pressure on the Pound (GBP) ahead of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech.

At time of writing the GBP/CAD exchange rate is at around $1.6860, which is down 0.10% from this morning’s figures.

Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Exchange Rate Subdued as Investors Prepare for BoE Bailey Speech

The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Exchange Rate has traded within a narrow range today, as investors hold off on any larger bets ahead of a speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey later today.

At time of writing the GBP/CAD exchange rate is trading at around $1.6870.

Pound (GBP) Falls ahead of BoE Bailey Speech despite Positive Retail Data

The Pound has fallen against many of its competitors today, as investors seem wary of placing significant speculative bets ahead of a speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey this evening.

Bailey is likely to face increased pressure today after the release of minutes by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated a tightening of monetary policy.

Sterling may see a boost however after distributive trades figures for November showed healthy growth in the UK’s retail sector. The figures printed above forecasts of 34 at 39 as consumers begin Christmas shopping early to avoid potential supply chain issues.

Upward movement for Sterling may be hampered by headwinds however as ongoing negotiations over UK-France fishing rights and the Northern Ireland Protocol both continue to generate uncertainty for GBP investors.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Fluctuates Ahead of Next OPEC Meeting

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rose overnight but has slowly fallen since the start of today’s session, as investors flock to safe-haven currencies. The fluctuating price of oil is also likely to have harmed the commodity-tied ‘Loonies’ chances today.

The announced release of around 70-80 million barrels of oil by the US from their strategic reserves has done little to make a significant dent in the price of crude as planned, with the WTI price per barrel falling slightly $77.91 a barrel at time of writing.

Traders now eagerly await OPEC’s next meeting in December to see whether the organisation will raise its oil output, a move that will likely cause the Canadian Dollar to remain volatile.

News that economists have lowered the country’s GDP growth expectations after floods in British Columbia may weaken bets on the Bank of Canada (BoC) hike interest rates in the near-term.

Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, was more sceptical of any earlier timeline for rate hikes however:

‘The hit to activity from the devastating floods in B.C. this week reduces the chance of the Bank becoming more hawkish any time soon.’

GBP/CAD Exchange Rate Forecast: Will Canadian GDP Continue to Shrink?

Looking forward to the rest of the week, BoE governor Andrew Bailey will speak later today on the central bank’s monetary policy. Bailey has recently hinted that he may scrap forward guidance ahead of policy meetings, so it’s likely any insightful comments will prompt speculative bets on the currency by investors.

There is no significant data for Canada for the rest of the week, although next week brings GDP growth figures for the country’s third quarter. Canada’s GDP growth rate has steadily shrunk over the past year, and a poor report for the third quarter could push the Canadian Dollar downward.

Gareth Monk

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