Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Rangebound amid Shock EU PPI Decrease

Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Narrows as Hawkish ECB Challenged by PPI Fall

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading narrowly this morning, as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish stance comes under pressure.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around US$1.0614, showing little movement from the morning’s opening rates.

Euro (EUR) Wavers as Shock PPI Decrease Battles Hawkish ECB

The Euro (EUR) is lacking in support this morning, following a shock decline in PPI levels. January’s print came in at -2.8%, far below the forecast of a 0.3% decrease.

Because of this, EUR investors may be paring back their expectations of continued aggressive tightening from the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, hawkish speeches from ECB policymakers may be challenging this perception. Governing Council Member Madis Muller stated that rates would ‘have to remain high for a while’.

Furthermore, ECB Policymaker Bostjan Vasle stated:

‘My expectations is that the increase we intend for our March meeting will be followed by additional increases before we reach a level that will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the trajectory towards our goal of 2% inflation.’

As such, the hawkish stance of the ECB may be serving to underpin the Euro from further losses. Furthermore, the Eurozone’s final PMI readings this morning came in positive, showing the service sector had grown more than forecast.

US Dollar (USD) Weakens as Investors Await Afternoon PMIs

The US Dollar (USD) is struggling for support this morning, as investors await the afternoon’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

The index for the services sector is forecast to show a slowdown in growth, falling to 54.5. However, anxieties over a surprise slip into contraction are keeping USD on the defensive.

If this came to pass, it could spark recession fears for the US, and lead to a pullback in Federal Reserve rate hike bets.

Elsewhere, an upbeat market mood is keeping the safe-haven currency low. With investors seeking riskier opportunities following positive economic readings from China, the ‘Greenback’ is being left behind.

Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: German Data to Dent EUR?

Looking ahead to next Monday for the Euro, the latest German construction index could be a driver of movement. At the time of writing, this index is forecast to increase to 45.1, meaning the sector may still be contracting.

If this prints as forecast, EUR could struggle as the German economy has a lean on construction. Signs of the bloc’s largest economy remaining slow could also reignite recession fears.

The latest Eurozone retail sales data is due shortly after. January’s sales are forecast to have declined by 1.2% on a yearly basis, but increase by 1.3% month-to-month. If this prints accurately, the monthly data could inspire some hope for EUR investors.

For the US Dollar, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Tuesday. If he reiterates the Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation and points to further hikes, the ‘Greenback’ may strengthen.

John Mulcahey

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