Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Plummets on Dovish Remarks
(Updated 11/5/23, 16:30)
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is weakening substantially as the markets continue to digest the interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE). Despite raising the cash rate to the highest level since 2008, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey comments on easing inflationary pressures. He added that the MPC expects headline inflation to start falling from now, tempering further rate hike expectations.
At time of writing, the GBP/USD exchange rate is around $1.2511, a 0.90% plummet from the morning’s opening levels.
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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Wavers as Hawkish BoE Limits Losses
(Updated 11/5/23, 12:00)
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate is finding some modest strength in the wake of the BoE meeting expectations and raising the interest rates to 4.5%, the highest since the global financial crash of 2008. In its accompanying statement, the central bank left the door open to further hikes:
‘The MPC would continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services price inflation. If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.’
At time of writing, the GBP/USD exchange rate is around $1.2603, relatively unchanged from the morning’s opening levels.
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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Softens as Markets Brace for Another Hike
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate is weakening as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for 12th consecutive time.
At time of writing, the GBP/USD exchange rate is around $1.2566, a 0.37% fall from the morning’s opening levels.
Pound (GBP) Subdued ahead of BoE Meeting
The Pound (GBP) is struggling against many of its peers this morning as investors move to the sidelines ahead of the BoE interest rate decision at midday. Following the meeting, a press conference from Governor Andrew Bailey could dictate further movement.
With inflation remaining far above the target rate, the market widely expects the central bank to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive time. Bringing the cash rate to 4.5%, borrowing costs will be at the highest levels since 2008. RBC Capital Markets said to their clients this morning:
‘The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is likely to exhibit a relatively hawkish tone and retain optionality over the direction of policy going forward, including avoiding any reference, explicit or otherwise, to pausing its tightening cycle.
‘The economy is performing better than expected, the labour market shows little sign of loosening and (perhaps most importantly) inflation is not falling as quickly as expected.’
US Dollar (USD) Supported by Mixed Market Mood
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is managing to regain its form after suffering heavy losses in the wake of softer-than-expected inflation.
Against expectations of an unchanged 5%, headline CPI came in at 4.9%, driven by falling energy prices. Expectations of a pause at the next Federal Reserve meeting were all but confirmed by the latest reading, weakening the ‘Greenback’ considerably. New York Fed president, John Williams, warned that inflation will remain a concern for some time:
‘Because of the lag between policy actions and their effects, it will take time for the (Fed’s) actions to restore balance to the economy and return inflation to our 2% target.’
However, a mixed market mood could be limiting any further losses for the US Dollar. With inflation in China also easing further than expected, downbeat market sentiment could be providing the safe-haven ‘Greenback’ some much-needed support.
Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: Hawkish Forward Guidance to Spur Sterling?
Looking ahead, the Pound US Dollar exchange rate could see further movement after the BoE announces its interest rate decision. A press conference from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will follow, potentially speaking on the policy outlook. Any further hints of continuing the tightening cycle could boost the Pound.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar could see fluctuations with the latest PPI inflation data. An expected uptick in producer prices, combined with a resilient labour market, could see the ‘Greenback’ climb. With inflation still far above the Fed’s target rate, a possibility for the Fed to continue hiking could cheer USD investors.