Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Rallies amid Risk-On Mood

Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Climbs amid Increased Appetite for Risk

(Updated 17:00, 28/11/23) The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate gained ground this afternoon as an improvement in the market mood lifted the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) against the safer Euro (EUR).

The turnaround in risk appetite seemed to come after US consumer confidence beat forecasts, cheering investors.

In addition, hawkish remarks in speech from Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter Jonathan Haskel lent Sterling support.

A text copy of Haskel’s speech was released before he delivered it later in the evening. In the speech, Haskel indicated that market bets on rate cuts were too optimistic:

‘The labour market is still historically tight. At current rates of change it would take at least a year to fall back to average pre-pandemic tightness…

‘Rates will have to be held higher and longer than many seem to be expecting.’

The comments saw investors revise their bets on when the BoE will begin to unwind its tightening cycle. This, in turn, boosted the Pound’s appeal.

Original article continues below:

Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Wavers as German Consumer Confidence Improves

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is wavering in a narrow range today as investors respond to Germany’s latest consumer confidence indicator.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR is trading at €1.1530, virtually unchanged from its opening level.

Euro (EUR) Wobbles despite Uptick in German Household Morale

The Euro (EUR) is struggling to find a clear direction today following some mixed German data.

Germany’s latest consumer confidence report beat forecasts this morning, however it still showed that consumers in the Eurozone’s largest economy remain extremely pessimistic.

The indicator printed at -27.8 heading into December, rising from -28.3 in November and beating expectations of -27.9. However, while the score improved and came in higher than forecast, it was still deep in negative territory.

Household morale in Germany plunged to record lows last winter and has struggled to recover ever since, with the country’s economy on the brink of a recession.

Against this backdrop, EUR investors are unsure how to react to the latest data. While consumer confidence showed a welcome improvement, there are still concerns around the health of the German economy.

Pound (GBP) Mixed amid Inflation Risks

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) is also mixed today amid a lack of market-moving UK data.

In the absence of more impactful releases, GBP investors may be turning to a new report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) about the risks of rising shop inflation.

The BRC today warned that Brexit red tape and measures from the Autumn Statement, including higher taxes and a rise in the national living wage, could fuel inflation and deepen the cost-of-living crisis.

While stubborn inflation could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates again – a factor that may be lending Sterling support – concerns about the long-term health of the UK economy may be limiting any upside potential.

Pound Euro Exchange Rate Forecast: ECB and BoE Speeches in Focus

Later this afternoon, central bank speeches could prompt further GBP/EUR movement.

First up is European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Lagarde dented the Euro yesterday by warning about ongoing weakness in the Eurozone economy. She also said that the inflation outlook remains uncertain, which seemed to unnerve investors. Any similar comments today could add to EUR’s downside.

Her speech will be shortly followed by one from Jonathan Haskel, an external rate-setter on the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Haskel is one of the three hawks who voted unsuccessfully for a rate hike at the BoE’s last meeting. Therefore, there’s a chance he could strike a hawkish tone and boost the Pound.

Looking further ahead, the latest consumer price indexes from Germany and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Forecasters expect inflation to have eased again this month, which could spark fresh speculation around ECB interest rate cuts and thereby dent the Euro.

Samuel Birnie

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