FX weekly forecast: ECB rate decision and US GDP to stoke currency volatility?

Pound (GBP)

The Pound (GBP) may be able to reverse some of its recent losses this week, with the publication of the UK’s latest PMIs. If activity in the UK’s vital services sector continued to accelerate this month, it may provide a strong boost to Sterling on Wednesday.

Euro (EUR)

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) first interest rate decision of the year will act as the main catalyst of movement in the Euro (EUR) this week. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold again this month, but the bank’s forward guidance could propel EUR exchange rates sharply higher if it continues to push back against rate cut speculation.

US Dollar (USD)

The US Dollar (USD) could face some headwinds this week with the publication of the latest US GDP figures. Thursday’s figures are expected to report growth in the US economy slowed from 4.9% to just 2% in the last quarter of 2023. Will such a sharp deceleration in growth stoke Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and drag on USD?

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In the absence of any high-impact domestic data, movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD) may be driven primarily by market risk sentiment this week. Will a cautious mood see investors shun the ‘Aussie’?

South African Rand (ZAR)

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) latest interest rate decision could help the South African Rand (ZAR) to find its feet again this week as SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago is expected to continue to try and quell interest rate cut speculation.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Movement in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is likely to be driven by the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest interest rate decision this week. Could a dovish outlook from the bank lead the ‘Loonie’ to weaken?

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could come under pressure this week as an expected cooling of domestic inflation in the fourth quarter of 2023 is likely to stoke Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cut bets.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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