FX weekly forecast: Slowing Eurozone inflation to sink the Euro?

Pound (GBP)

A series of speeches by Bank of England (BoE) policymakers are likely to drive movement in the Pound (GBP) this week. A broadly hawkish consensus could dampen BoE interest rate cut speculation and help to underpin Sterling through the session.

Euro (EUR)

The publication of the Eurozone’s latest consumer price index will undoubtedly act as the main catalyst of movement in the Euro (EUR) this week. The CPI figures may trigger some notable selling pressure at the end of the week as an expected cooling of inflation may stoke European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut bets.

US Dollar (USD)

The US Dollar (USD) may rally this week, if the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, remains strong. Also potentially lending support to the ‘Greenback’ will be the latest US GDP estimate, which is expected to confirm the US economy expanded at a healthy pace in the last quarter of 2023.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

A rebound in domestic retail sales may give the Australian Dollar (AUD) a leg-up this week. But will the upside potential of the ‘Aussie’ be limited if a risk-off mood prevails?

South African Rand (ZAR)

Following on from last week’s dramatic selloff, the South African Rand (ZAR) may be left to lick its wounds this week, particularly if South Africa’s latest trade figures report the nation’s trade surplus halved in January.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) may struggle in the first half of this week if oil prices continue to slide. However, the release of Canada’s latest GDP figures in the latter half of the session could allow the ‘Loonie’ to recover if they show the economy returned to growth at the end of last year.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first policy meeting of 2024 may infuse some volatility into the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week. While the general consensus is the RBNZ will leave interest rates on hold, there is also speculation that a rate hike may be on the cards. Expect the ‘Kiwi’ to skyrocket if the bank opts to tighten its monetary policy.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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