FX weekly forecast: UK Spring Budget to infuse volatility into the Pound?

Pound (GBP)

The unveiling of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget is likely to act as the main catalyst of movement in the Pound (GBP) this week. Expected tax cuts from the Chancellor could spark some volatility in Sterling depending on whether he ensures he is still balancing the books.

Euro (EUR)

Movement in the Euro (EUR) is likely to be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision this week. No policy changes are expected this month, but the single currency may fall if the ECB doesn’t rule out an April rate cut.

US Dollar (USD)

The latest US non-farm payrolls report will likely act as the main catalyst of movement in the US Dollar (USD) this week. Will an expected slowdown in employment growth last month stoke Federal Reserve rate cut bets and dent USD demand?

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) may firm this week as Australia’s latest GDP figures are forecast to report domestic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2023.

South African Rand (ZAR)

South Africa will also publish its latest GDP figures this week. Expect to see the South African Rand (ZAR) rally if Tuesday’s data confirms the country managed to avoid slipping into a recession at the end of 2023.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face some headwinds this week as the Bank of Canada (BoC) concludes its latest policy meeting on Wednesday. While the BoC is expected to leave interest rates on hold this month, it may strike a move dovish chord ahead of expected rate cuts over the summer.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

In the absence of any notable data, movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to be tied to market risk dynamics this week. Will a cautious market mood lead investors to shy away from the ‘Kiwi’?

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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