Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate subdued amid absence of data
The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate is trading sideways this morning amid a lack of macroeconomic data releases for the pairing.
At the time of writing the GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at $1.9407, virtually unchanged from this morning’s opening rate.
Pound (GBP) rangebound ahead of key data
The Pound (GBP) is holding steady this morning against the majority of peers amid a lack of UK economic data.
GBP investors will also be reluctant to make any aggressive bets ahead of some high impact data later in the week.
Tuesday will see the release of the latest UK jobs data, and on Wednesday domestic GDP for January will be released.
With the UK labour market being a key driving factor in stubborn inflationary pressures, continuing wage growth could see bets for an August rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) diminish, and in turn support GBP exchange rates.
Australian Dollar (AUD) undermined by risk-off flows
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trapped in a narrow range as the risk-sensitive currency struggles to find support amid this morning’s souring market mood. Investors have turned cautious ahead of the latest US inflation figures.
Further undermining the Australian Dollar this morning is the latest Chinese inflation data.
Released over the weekend, the data confirmed that China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased in for the first time in four months, to 0.7 in February, whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.7% in the same month.
On the back of the ‘Aussies’ position as a Chinese proxy currency, the mixed data reading from one the world’s economic superpowers is also pressuring AUD exchange rates this morning.
GBP/AUD exchange rate forecast: UK data to drive the Pound?
Looking ahead, the likely catalyst of movement for the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate will be several UK data releases expected in the next few days.
On Tuesday, both UK unemployment and domestic average earnings (excluding bonuses) are expected to hold steady, at 3.8% and 6.2% respectively.
Should the data print as expected, this may offer Sterling some support on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, UK GDP for January is forecast to rise, coming up from December’s 0.1% contraction to an expected 0.2% expansion.
Should the data confirm that the UK economy returned to growth in the first month of 2024, this may help alleviate UK recession fears and in turn bolster GBP exchange rates.
Turning to the Australian Dollar, the NAB business confidence report is scheduled for release overnight, and is expected to fall from 1 in January, to -1 for this month’s reading.
A downturn in confidence levels may serve to undermine the ‘Aussie’.