Pound (GBP)
A data-light week for the pound (GBP) may see investors look towards the UK’s finalised GDP print on Thursday. The data is expected to report that the British economy contracted 0.3% during the fourth quarter of 2024. Confirmation that the UK fell into a technical recession over the winter months could apply additional pressure to the Bank of England (BoE) to commit to summer interest rate cuts.
US dollar (USD)
The core PCE price index will likely be the key catalyst of US dollar (USD) movement towards the end of the week. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation is forecast to remain on hold in February. Will signs of sticky inflation bolster expectations the Fed will only deliver two rate cuts in 2024 and strengthen USD demand?
Euro (EUR)
The publication of Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence indicator may drive euro (EUR) exchange rates on Tuesday. Should consumer confidence continue to rebound from its eleven-month low in April, signs of gradually improving optimism in the Eurozone’s largest economy may offer some modest support to the common currency.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Australian dollar (AUD) may edge higher mid-week, with Australia’s monthly CPI indicator due to forecast a slight warming in February. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish signals last week, signs of sticky inflation may serve to keep AUD afloat.
South African rand (ZAR)
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is due to deliver its latest monetary policy update on Thursday. Economists expect the central bank to keep interest rates at a 15-year high of 8.25%. ZAR may gain ground amid continually restrictive policy.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
The ANZ business outlook index in New Zealand may drive ‘Kiwi’ movement on Wednesday, forecast to retreat further from its recent nine-and-a-half-year high. Waning business confidence may see investors favour NZD’s stronger peers.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian dollar (CAD) may strengthen on Thursday, with domestic GDP forecast to have risen to 0.3% in January. Following the previous month’s flat reading, renewed signs of economic momentum in Canada could boost the ‘Loonie’.