FX weekly forecast: Slowing UK inflation to dent the pound?

Pound (GBP)

Several high-impact UK data releases in addition to a series of speeches from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers could infuse notable volatility into the pound (GBP) this week. The most notable movement may come on the back of the UK’s consumer price index, as a rapid cooling of inflation may bolster BoE interest rate cut expectations.

Euro (EUR)

Germany’s latest economic sentiment index may act as the main catalyst of movement in the euro (EUR) this week. Will a continued improvement in sentiment help to prop up demand for the single currency?

US dollar (USD)

The US dollar (USD) may maintain a positive trajectory this week as a further trimming of Federal Reserve rate cut bets and a cautious market mood are likely to underpin USD demand.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The Australian dollar (AUD) could face an uphill battle this week, as risk-off flows and data showing an expected uptick in domestic unemployment last month are likely to weigh on AUD sentiment.

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African rand (ZAR) may be driven primarily by South Africa’s latest inflation figures this week. Will a cooling of inflation stoke South African Reserve Bank (SARB) rate cut speculation and drag on the rand?

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada will also publish its latest CPI figures this week. Another cooling of inflation could weigh on the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it’s likely to place more pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to start loosening its monetary policy.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

NZD data is in short supply this week, likely leading to movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) being driven by market risk dynamics. Will tensions in the Middle East lead investors to shun the risk-sensitive ‘kiwi’?

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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