Pound US dollar (GBP/USD) falters amid cautious trade
The pound US dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is facing headwinds this morning as anxious trade sweeps global markets.
At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.3181, virtually unchanged from this morning’s opening rate.
US dollar (USD) rebounds amid gloomy trade
The safe-haven US dollar (USD) is recouping some of its recent losses this morning amid a prevailing risk-off market sentiment.
An influx of weak US jobs data, easing price pressures and consequently surging Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets have seen the ‘greenback’ hobbling near multi-year lows in recent weeks.
Commenting on last week’s lacklustre employment report, Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, observed:
‘For traders, this means more of the Fed’s favourite guessing game. The report wasn’t bad enough to scream “panic mode,” but indeed not good enough to keep the 50 bp rate cut whispers at bay.’
Additionally, growing concerns about the health of the US economy have weighed on USD, as analysts mull over the likelihood of a possible recession in the months ahead.
However, USD is posting modest gains this morning as investors favour safer investment options amid a data-light start to the week. Also serving to underpin USD’s upside today is a slight uptick in US Treasury yield bonds.
Pound (GBP) dips ahead of jobs data
The increasingly risk-sensitive pound (GBP) is losing ground against its safer rivals this morning as anxious trade permeates global markets.
Meanwhile, with UK economic data in short supply, the latest UK Report on Jobs from audit giant KPMG and the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) point to falling UK employment vacancies, signalling rapid cooling across the British labour market.
Ahead of the UK’s latest employment data, due for release tomorrow morning, news of easing British employment appears to sour Sterling sentiment, leaving investors hesitant to place any aggressive bets on the pound ahead of tomorrow’s high-impact release.
Jon Holt, Chief Executive and Senior Partner of KPMG in the UK, argues that a rapid downturn in UK employment coupled with a forecast easing of domestic wage growth tomorrow could bolster expectations of a more aggressive policy-easing cycle from the Bank of England (BoE) than previously imagined.
Holt noted:
‘The news that while salaries rose last month it was at the weakest rate since March could help make the case for more rate cuts when the [Bank of England’s] Monetary Policy Committee meets to decide the future path of interest rates.’
Pound US dollar exchange rate forecast: US jobs data to dent GBP?
Looking ahead, unemployment in the UK is forecast to fall to 4.1% in July, dipping further from the two-and-a-half year high reached during the spring months.
Additionally, average earnings are due to hit 4.9%, notably easing from a previous reading of 5.4%. Following a prolonged period of stubborn UK wage growth, news of easing UK earnings may bolster the case for further interest rate cuts by the BoE, thereby denting Sterling.
Looking to the US, a lack of immediate data could see USD left vulnerable to global risk dynamics, with further downbeat trade likely to lift the ‘greenback’ against its riskier peers.