Pound euro exchange rate muted ahead of UK data

Pound euro exchange rate flat ahead of UK distributive trades survey

The pound euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trapped in a narrow range this morning ahead of the publication of the UK’s upcoming CBI distributive trades survey.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR is trading at around €1.1994, virtually unchanged from this morning’s opening levels.

Pound (GBP) rangebound ahead of domestic data release

The pound (GBP) is treading water against the majority of its peers this morning as markets await the publication of the UK’s latest CBI distributive trades survey.

October’s index if forecast to report another uptick in retail sales compared to this time last year, following last month’s unexpected surge.

The data is expected to rise once again, forecast to increase from 5 to 10. Should the data print as expected, this could support GBP exchange rates following the release.

However, as the UK’s long-awaited Autumn Budget is scheduled for release this Wednesday, GBP investors may be reluctant to place any overly aggressive bets on Sterling ahead of the publication.

Gabriel McKeown, Head of Macroeconomics at Sad Rabbit Investments, comments ahead of the release:

‘As chancellor Reeves prepares to deliver her inaugural Budget, the spectre of 2022’s disastrous mini-Budget looms large. With the government’s ominous rhetoric of ‘tough decisions’ and ‘painful’ measures, investors are on high alert for any mis-steps that could trigger a repeat of last year’s market meltdown.’

Euro (EUR) directionless amid lull in data

The euro (EUR) is wavering against the majority of its counterparts this morning as an absence of economic data from within the Eurozone sees the single currency struggling to find a clear trajectory.

EUR exchange rates are also being hobbled by current European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut bets.

Following a number of disappointing data releases from within the Bloc last week, namely the Eurozone’s lacklustre PMI print published on Thursday, ECB rate cut bets have increased, with markets now anticipating another rate cut from the central bank when it next meets in December.

Pound euro exchange rate forecast: German data in the spotlight

Looking ahead, the primary catalyst of movement for the pound euro exchange rate looking ahead to tomorrow will likely be the publication of Germany’s latest GfK consumer confidence index.

As the data is expected to report another negative reading, this could see the single currency begin Tuesday’s session on the back foot.

Turning to the pound, UK data will be absent from tomorrow’s data calendar which may see GBP exchange rates struggle to find a clear direction.

However, with the highly anticipated UK Autumn Budget scheduled for publication on Wednesday, GBP investors may choose to err on the side of caution ahead of the announcement, which could see Sterling treading water once again.

Sarah Ebrahem

Contact Sarah Ebrahem


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