FX weekly forecast: Robust US payroll print to underpin the US dollar?

Pound (GBP)

The release of the UK’s most recent GDP data may lend support to the pound (GBP) this week if it shows economic momentum picked up in the final quarter of 2025, although lingering political uncertainty in the UK could still act as a drag on the currency.

Euro (EUR)

Aside from any potential revisions to fourth-quarter Eurozone GDP, there is little in the way of high-impact EUR data scheduled this week, which could see the euro (EUR) take its cues from broader market sentiment.

US dollar (USD)

USD investors face a busy week with delayed payroll figures and fresh inflation data on the calendar. Should these releases further dampen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the US dollar (USD) may find room to advance.

Australian dollar (AUD)

Australia is set to publish its latest consumer and business confidence readings this week. If these indicators point to a continued slide in sentiment, the Australian dollar (AUD) could encounter resistance in the first half of the session.

South African rand (ZAR)

In the absence of any notable domestic data, the South African rand (ZAR) is likely to remain sensitive to moves in precious metals and overall risk appetite this week. Continued strength in gold prices would be expected to support ZAR demand.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

In a quiet week for Canadian data, the Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to track developments in oil markets. The ‘loonie’ may come under pressure if crude prices extend their recent decline.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

New Zealand’s upcoming manufacturing PMI could offer direction for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week, particularly if it suggests factory sector activity stayed robust at the start of 2026.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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