Pound tumbles as shock rise in unemployment stokes BoE rate cut bets

Pound (GBP) flat ahead of major data

The pound (GBP) moved sideways at the beginning of this week as investors prepared for a run of significant UK economic announcements.

Markets are paying close attention to this week’s releases in an effort to assess how swiftly the Bank of England (BoE) may look to lower interest rates over the months ahead.

The first publication has already weighed on Sterling this morning, with the UK’s latest labour report revealing unemployment unexpectedly climbed to a five-year high of 5.2% at the close of 2025.

Euro (EUR) subdued after weak industrial figures

The euro (EUR) struggled to find direction yesterday following the release of the Eurozone’s latest industrial production data.

Statistics from Eurostat indicated factory output across the bloc fell sharply from 0.3% to –1.4% in December, marginally better than forecasts of a 1.5% drop but still marking the weakest reading since April.

Attention now turns to Germany’s latest ZEW economic sentiment survey, which could lift the single currency today if it shows confidence improved further this month.

US dollar (USD) steady in quiet trade

The US dollar (USD) traded in a narrow range yesterday as American markets closed for President’s Day, resulting in thinner trading volumes.

This capped the currency’s upside potential, even as a generally cautious market backdrop would typically favour the greenback.

Looking ahead, USD could face headwinds if the New York Empire State manufacturing index points to a contraction when it is released later today.

Canadian dollar (CAD) pressured as oil prices stall

The Canadian dollar (CAD) posted slight losses on Monday as a stalling of oil prices dampened appetite for the commodity-linked currency.

Canada’s latest consumer price index is due later today. Should inflation have accelerated again in January, it may reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will leave interest rates unchanged through 2026 and lend support to the ‘loonie’.

Australian dollar (AUD) unsettled amid mixed sentiment

The Australian dollar (AUD) seesawed during Monday night’s session as shifting risk appetite coincided with the publication of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February meeting.

New Zealand dollar (NZD) choppy in volatile trade

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also experienced uneven movement overnight as fluctuating market sentiment prompted erratic trading conditions.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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