Pound (GBP) rallies on upbeat UK data
The pound (GBP) ended last week on firm footing after the UK’s latest PMI readings and retail sales data both surpassed market expectations.
Additionally, the UK reported a record fiscal surplus in January, offering a potential tailwind for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares to deliver her Spring Statement next month.
At the beginning of this week, renewed political uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s Manchester by-election could introduce an added layer of risk for Sterling.
Euro (EUR) lifted by softer USD
The euro (EUR) advanced on Friday, supported largely by its inverse relationship with the US dollar (USD).
Further support for the single currency came from the Eurozone’s latest PMI releases, with February’s preliminary data indicating the bloc’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace since June 2022.
The week begins with Germany’s latest IFO business climate survey, which may lend additional support to the euro should business confidence strengthen this month.
US dollar (USD) weakens after Supreme Court tariff ruling
The US dollar moved lower toward the end of last week after the US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariff measures.
USD sentiment was also pressured by recent GDP data showing the US economy contracted far more sharply than forecast in the final quarter of 2025.
Looking ahead, a speech from Federal Reserve policymaker Christopher Waller may provide direction for the US dollar today, with hawkish remarks potentially helping USD open the week on stronger ground.
Canadian dollar (CAD) steady despite upbeat retail figures
The Canadian dollar (CAD) traded without clear direction on Friday, as a stronger-than-expected rebound in domestic retail sales failed to significantly lift investor sentiment.
At the start of this week, the commodity-linked ‘loonie’ could strengthen if escalating Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher.
Australian dollar (AUD) volatile following new Trump tariffs
The Australian dollar (AUD) moved erratically through Monday’s Asian session as markets reacted to President Trump’s announcement of a new 15% global tariff, introduced after his previous tariff framework was ruled unconstitutional.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) supported by strong retail sales
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also experienced choppy overnight trade but outperformed the Australian dollar after New Zealand’s latest retail sales figures exceeded expectations.
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