FX weekly forecast: US labour market resilience to lift the US dollar?

Pound (GBP)

Aside from a potential revision to May’s final services PMI reading, the UK economic calendar is relatively light this week, which may leave the pound (GBP) to take its cues from broader market trends.

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone’s latest inflation figures will likely be the primary catalyst for the euro (EUR) this week. A further acceleration in price pressures could strengthen expectations for tighter European Central Bank (ECB) policy and provide support for the single currency.

US dollar (USD)

Alongside any fresh developments in the Middle East, a number of influential US economic releases are due this week. Particular attention will be on the latest non-farm payrolls report, with the US dollar (USD) likely to gain if employment growth continues to demonstrate underlying strength.

Australian dollar (AUD)

Australia’s first-quarter GDP release will be closely watched this week. Should economic growth slow as forecast, the Australian dollar (AUD) could come under pressure as markets further scale back expectations for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening.

South African rand (ZAR)

With little in the way of major domestic data, the South African rand (ZAR) is expected to take direction from global risk sentiment this week. As a result, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East peace negotiations may inject additional volatility into the currency.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian dollar (CAD) may encounter headwinds later in the week if Canada’s latest employment report signals further weakening in labour market conditions.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

With no significant domestic releases scheduled, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to be influenced by broader market sentiment as well as shifting expectations for future Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate increases.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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