FX weekly forecast: Burnham’s Chancellor appointment poses risk to the pound

Pound (GBP)

A busy UK economic calendar, alongside incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s cabinet appointments, is expected to generate volatility for the pound (GBP) this week, with GBP investors paying particularly close attention to Burnham’s choice of Chancellor.

Euro (EUR)

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest policy announcement is set to be the key driver for the euro (EUR) this week. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the single currency could still find support if policymakers indicate that additional monetary tightening remains on the table later this year.

US dollar (USD)

With few major US economic releases scheduled over the coming days, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant influence on the US dollar (USD). Any further deterioration in the situation across the Middle East could continue to boost demand for the safe-haven currency.

Australian dollar (AUD)

Australia’s latest labour market figures will be the primary focus for AUD investors this week. Should the employment report reveal a further slowdown in jobs growth, expectations for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate increases may fade, weighing on the Australian dollar (AUD).

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is widely expected to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its latest policy meeting later this week. Anticipation of tighter monetary policy may help cushion the South African rand (ZAR) against losses stemming from persistent tensions in the Gulf.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Elevated oil prices are expected to continue supporting the Canadian dollar (CAD) this week. However, any upside may come under pressure early in the session if softer domestic inflation further reduces expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will tighten monetary policy in the months ahead.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) could receive a boost from this week’s quarterly inflation figures, as forecasts for a stronger CPI reading are likely to reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue raising interest rates.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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