Brexit Fears Overshadow Job Stats for Pound to Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) Exchange Rate

Pound to Swedish Krona Exchange Rate See Little Influence from Latest Job Reports

Some stronger than expected Swedish data has not prevented the Pound Sterling to Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) exchange rate from attempting a rebound this week. The pair’s gains are still limited though, as no-deal Brexit fears keep the Pound (GBP) under pressure.

Since opening this week at the interbank level of 11.22, GBP/SEK has trended with an upside bias. GBP/SEK is attempting to recover again at the time of writing, trending in the interbank region of 11.29.

While the pair has attempted a modest rebound, GBP/SEK remains well below last week’s levels. GBP/SEK plummeted from the level of 11.60 last week, and touched on a two and a half year worst of 11.16 on Friday.

More UK data is due for publication later in the week. However, the Pound to Swedish Krona exchange rate is more likely to be sensitive to Brexit and Bank of England (BoE) news than data in the coming sessions.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Up despite Rising Possibility of No-Deal Brexit

The UK government is thus far progressing its controversial plan to rewrite the Brexit withdrawal agreement, and is showing no signs of backing down. Despite this, the Pound is attempting to rebound from lows today.

Rising criticism of the UK government’s plan did not prevent the bill from passing its first run through the UK House of Commons.

Analysts believe that the chances of a no-deal Brexit are notably rising. According to James Smith, Economist at ING:

‘A deal is now at best a 50:50 probability. The key factor will be whether the Internal Markets Bill makes its way through the Commons and Lords successfully.

If so, the EU is highly unlikely to sign a free-trade agreement with the UK given the lack of trust, and threat of withdrawal agreement breach.’

Today’s UK job market report did beat expectations in some areas. However the data generally indicated that the job outlook was gloomy, so it had limited impact on the Pound.

Swedish Krona (SEK) Exchange Rates Find Little Support in Swedish Jobs Report

The Swedish Krona (SEK) has been a fairly strong major currency for much of the coronavirus pandemic. This is partially because Sweden saw less strict lockdown than many neighbouring countries, helping the economy to remain resilient.

Swedish data continues to show resilience this week. This morning saw the publication of Sweden’s latest job market data, which beat forecasts.

The key unemployment rate was predicted to worsen from 8.9% to around 9.1%. However, the figure instead improved to 8.8%.

This data was not enough to help the Swedish Krona to hold its best levels against Sterling though. The focus today was on the Pound’s rebound attempts.

Pound to Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) Exchange Rates Focus on Brexit and Bank of England

More notable data is due for publication in the coming sessions. This includes UK inflation data tomorrow and retail sales results on Friday.

However, amid a lack of Swedish data due for publication and Brexit still taking focus for Sterling, the Pound to Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) exchange rate is more likely to keep being driven by Brexit developments in the coming sessions.

Any further developments regarding the UK government’s controversial Brexit bill will be closely watched. If no-deal Brexit fears intensify, the Pound could be in for further losses.

Markets will also closely watch Thursday’s upcoming Bank of England (BoE) policy decision.

Any signs of dovishness from the bank, such as hints at negative interest rates for example, could hit the Pound.

The Pound to Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) exchange rate could also be influenced by coronavirus developments in the UK and Sweden.

Josh Jeffery

Contact Josh Jeffery


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