Pound (GBP)
Following on from last week’s selloff, the pound (GBP) could come under additional pressure this week with the publication of the UK’s latest PMIs. Will another moderation of growth in the UK’s vital service sector this month stoke expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut this side of summer and sap Sterling sentiment?
Euro (EUR)
In contrast the Eurozone’s own PMIs could help to lift the euro (EUR) this week, if growth in the bloc’s private sector continued to accelerate this month. However, with the data unlikely to change the dial regarding an expected European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut in June, the single currency’s upside potential may be limited.
US dollar (USD)
The main catalyst of movement in the US dollar (USD) this week is likely to be the latest US GDP print. A robust expansion of growth in the first quarter could further temper Federal Reserve rate cut bets and bolster USD demand. Any upside in USD may also be reinforced later in the week if the Fed’s preferred indicator for inflation, the core PCE price index, outpaces expectations in March.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Australian dollar (AUD) may face resistance this week with the publication of Australia’s quarterly consumer price index. Will a cooling of inflation stoke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut bets and drag on the ‘Aussie’?
South African rand (ZAR)
South African data remains in short supply this week, likely leaving movement in the South African rand (ZAR) to be driven by market risk dynamics. Will ongoing demand for safe-haven assets leave the rand on the back foot?
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The oil-sensitive Canadian dollar (CAD) may face an uphill battle this week if crude prices continue to soften. But could a rebound in domestic retail sales help to counteract any losses in the second half of the week?
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) may struggle this week as data showing an expected expansion in New Zealand’s trade deficit last month coupled with a generally cautious market mood are likely to weigh on the ‘kiwi’.