FX weekly forecast: Strong US inflation to boost the US dollar?

Pound (GBP)

The pound (GBP) may face headwinds this week with the publication of the UK’s latest jobs report. Tuesday’s data is expected to report unemployment rose while wage growth cooled in March. This may stoke bets the Bank of England (BoE) will pursue a June interest rate cut and could trigger a sharp drop in Sterling.

Euro (EUR)

Germany will publish its latest ZEW economic sentiment index this week. The euro (EUR) may strengthen if the index shows that morale in the Eurozone’s largest economy continued to improve this month.

US dollar (USD)

The release of the latest US consumer price index is likely to act as the main catalyst of movement for the US dollar (USD) this week. Will another robust inflation print push out expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut and catapult USD exchange rates higher this week?

Australian dollar (AUD)

The Australian dollar (AUD) may face pressure this week, with the publication of Australia’s latest jobs report. Analysts forecast unemployment will have ticked higher again in April, placing more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start cutting interest rates later in the year.

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African rand (ZAR) faces an uphill battle this week amid forecasts that South Africa’s latest employment figures will report domestic unemployment rose in the first quarter of 2024

Canadian dollar (CAD)

In the absence of any notable domestic data, the direction of the commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) may be dictated by oil-price dynamics this week. Will sliding crude prices drag on the ‘loonie’?

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) may struggle to find support this week as a lull in domestic data likely leaves movement in the currency tied to market risk appetite.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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