FX weekly forecast: Pound poised to slump if UK inflation cools rapidly

Pound (GBP)

The publication of the UK’s latest consumer price index could trigger significant volatility in the pound (GBP) this week. The CPI figures are forecast to report inflation cooled sharply in April, returning to within a hair’s breadth of the Bank of England’s (BoE) target. Will this stoke bets for a June interest rate cut and sink Sterling?

Euro (EUR)

The euro (EUR) may receive a boost later this week, with the release of the Eurozone’s latest PMIs. May’s preliminary figures are expected to report that a continued uptick in activity saw growth in the bloc’s private sector climb to a one-year high.

US dollar (USD)

Likely acting as the main catalyst of movement for the US dollar (USD) this week will be the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting earlier this month. The FOMC minutes could drag on the ‘greenback’ if they signal Fed policymakers are optimistic that US inflation is returning to target.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May policy meeting are also likely to drive movement in the Australian dollar (AUD) this week. Expect to see the ‘Aussie’ falter if the minutes echo the dovish tone struck by RBA Governor Michele Bullock following the rate decision earlier this month.

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African rand (ZAR) may extend its recent bullish run this week if domestic inflation figures report an uptick in price pressures. Although political uncertainty ahead of next week’s election could temper the rand’s upside potential.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada will also publish its latest inflation figures this week. Economists forecast domestic inflation will have cooled last month, potentially softening the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it places more pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to start loosening its monetary policy.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver its latest interest rate decision this week. No policy changes are expected from the bank this month, but the New Zealand dollar (NZD) may weaken if the bank’s forward guidance strikes a dovish chord.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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