FX weekly forecast: Bumper Fed rate cut to sink the US dollar?

Pound (GBP)

The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its latest rate decision this week. In contrast to the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve, the BoE is expected to leave interest rates on hold this month. This divergence in policy may help to underpin the pound (GBP).

Euro (EUR)

The main catalyst of movement for the euro (EUR) this week is likely to be Germany’s latest ZEW economic sentiment index. This could see the single currency soften if September’s survey reports another deterioration in morale.

US dollar (USD)

The Fed’s rate decision will be centre stage this week. A rate cut is widely expected this week, but questions linger over how aggressively the US central bank will ease its monetary policy. Expect to see the US dollar nosedive if the bank ultimately opts for the larger 50 basis point cut.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The Australian dollar (AUD) may face resistance this week as Australia’s latest jobs report is forecast to report that domestic employment growth slowed last month.

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is also expected to cut interest rates this week. While the cut is largely priced in, the South African rand (ZAR) could come under pressure if the bank’s forward guidance hints at more cuts before the end of the year.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada’s latest consumer price index may weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) this week as an expected cooling of domestic inflation is likely to strengthen bets for another rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) looks poised to slide this week as New Zealand’s latest GDP figures are forecast to report a notable slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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