FX weekly forecast: Strong UK services PMI to bolster the pound?

Pound (GBP)

The UK’s preliminary PMIs for October are likely to drive movement in the pound (GBP) this week. If they show that growth in the services sector began to accelerate again following September’s slowdown, Sterling is likely to strengthen.

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone will also release its latest PMIs this week. Expect to see the euro (EUR) weaken if October’s preliminary figures report the bloc’s private sector contracted for a second consecutive month.

US dollar (USD)

The US dollar (USD) may strengthen this week if markets remain broadly risk averse. Although an expected contraction in US durable goods orders last month could act as a headwind for the ‘greenback’ at the end of the session.

Australian dollar (AUD)

This week may see the Australian dollar (AUD) come under pressure if Australia’s latest PMI figures report growth in country’s private sector contracted again this month.

South African rand (ZAR)

South Africa’s latest inflation figures are likely to act as the main catalyst of movement for the South African rand (ZAR) this week. Another slowdown in inflation last month may stoke South African Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate cut bets and sink the rand.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian dollar (CAD) looks poised to slump this week as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is forecast to deliver a bumper 50bps interest rate cut when it concludes its latest policy meeting on Wednesday.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) may receive a boost in the first half of this week as an expected acceleration in export growth is forecast to have narrowed New Zealand’s trade deficit in September.

Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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