FX weekly forecast: Euro to test new lows on dovish ECB rate cut?

Pound (GBP)

The publication of the UK’s latest GDP figures may act as a tailwind for the pound (GBP) this week if they report that the UK economy returned to growth at the start of the fourth quarter.

Euro (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver its latest interest rate decision this week. With another 25bps rate cut largely priced in, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the ECB hints it will continue to ease policy through the start of 2025, the euro (EUR) could tumble.

US dollar (USD)

The main catalyst of movement for the US dollar (USD) this week looks to be the latest US inflation figures. Expect to see USD exchange rates strengthen on Wednesday if Federal Reserve rate cut bets are trimmed by another acceleration in inflation last month.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest policy meeting may infuse significant volatility into the Australian dollar (AUD) this week. Following on from last week’s GDP miss, AUD investors will be looking for any hints that the bank may be inclined to bring forward the first rate cut of its next easing cycle.

South African rand (ZAR)

South Africa’s latest inflation figures could be the main catalyst of movement for the South African rand (ZAR) this week. If inflation accelerated in November, ZAR could climb.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is also scheduled to hold its latest policy meeting this week, with a widely expected interest rate cut likely to drag the Canadian dollar (CAD) lower.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) may struggle to attract support this week amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and a lull in domestic economic releases.


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Samuel Birnie

Contact Samuel Birnie


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