Pound (GBP)
May’s finalised services PMI is the only UK economic data of note this week. An upwards revision could offer some modest support for the pound (GBP) in the middle of the week, particularly amid the lack of any other major catalysts for movement.
Euro (EUR)
Centre stage this week will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate decision. A rate cut is largely priced in, so any subsequent movement in the euro (EUR) is likely to be driven by the bank’s forward guidance. If the ECB signals that with the latest cut interest rates are now close to neutral, the single currency may strengthen.
US dollar (USD)
In addition to a renewed focus on US tariff policy, several high-impact US data releases will influence the US dollar (USD) this week. The highlight is likely to be the latest US non-farm payroll print, with the US dollar poised to slide if we see further signs that the US labour market is slowing.
Australian dollar (AUD)
This week sees the publication of Australia’s latest GDP figures. An expected deceleration in growth in the first quarter will likely drag on the Australian dollar (AUD), with the potential for dovish minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest policy meeting to add to the pressure.
South African rand (ZAR)
The South African rand (ZAR) is likely to be primarily driven by market risk dynamics this week in the absence of any notable domestic data. This could see the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy infuse volatility into the currency throughout the session.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The primary catalyst of movement for the Canadian dollar (CAD) this week is likely to be the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest interest rate decision. No policy changes are expected this month, but a cautious outlook from the bank could limit demand for the ‘loonie’
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
New Zealand data is in short supply this week, which is likely to see the direction of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) be dictated by wider market trends.