FX weekly forecast: Hawkish ECB rate hike to lift the euro?

Pound (GBP)

The UK’s latest GDP data is the only UK economic release of note this week, with the pound (GBP) vulnerable to losses if April’s monthly figures reveal the economy shrank as Middle East tensions weighed on activity.

Euro (EUR)

Attention for EUR investors this week will focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate announcement. A widely expected 25bps rate hike could provide support for the euro (EUR), especially if policymakers signal further tightening may be required.

US dollar (USD)

The latest US inflation figures will be a key driver for the US dollar (USD) this week. Investors will be assessing the impact of higher global energy costs on consumer prices, with another rise in inflation likely to reinforce Federal Reserve tightening expectations and support the ‘greenback’.

Australian dollar (AUD)

Australia’s upcoming business and consumer confidence surveys are expected to play a major role in shaping movement in the Australian dollar (AUD) this week. Any further deterioration in sentiment could add to pressure on the ‘Aussie’.

South African rand (ZAR)

The South African rand (ZAR) could encounter pressure during the early part of this week as forecasts suggest South Africa’s latest GDP report will show the local economy lost momentum in the first quarter of 2026.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Bank of Canada will announce its latest policy decision this week. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the Canadian dollar (CAD) could still strengthen if policymakers indicate further rate increases remain a possibility.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

With no major domestic economic releases scheduled, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) is likely to take its direction from broader market sentiment and shifts in investor risk appetite this week.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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