FX weekly forecast: Strong US payrolls to catapult US dollar to fresh multi-month highs?

Pound (GBP)

Political headlines are expected to remain the dominant driver of the pound (GBP) this week, as investors continue to monitor Andy Burnham for further details on the priorities and policies of his prospective government.

Euro (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) hosts its annual Sintra Forum on Central Banking this week. Should ECB President Christine Lagarde continue to strike the cautious tone seen in her remarks last week, the euro (EUR) may struggle to find support.

US dollar (USD)

For USD investors, attention this week will centre on the latest US non-farm payrolls report. Another stronger-than-forecast increase in employment is likely to bolster the US dollar (USD) during the latter half of the week.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting minutes will be closely watched by AUD investors. The Australian dollar (AUD) could come under pressure if policymakers appear increasingly hesitant about delivering additional interest rate hikes.

South African rand (ZAR)

With South Africa’s economic calendar looking relatively quiet, the South African rand (ZAR) is expected to take its cues from broader market sentiment. Continued uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace process could generate additional volatility for the emerging-market currency.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem is due to speak during the ECB’s Sintra Forum later this week. The Canadian dollar (CAD) may attract support if his comments indicate policymakers remain open to raising interest rates over the months ahead.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to take its direction largely from broader market risk sentiment this week, leaving the ‘kiwi’ exposed to downside pressure should investors remain cautious.


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Matthew Andrews

Contact Matthew Andrews


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