FX weekly forecast: Labour leadership nominations to trigger pound volatility?

Pound (GBP)

The opening of nominations for the Labour leadership on Thursday could inject volatility into the pound (GBP). Sterling may strengthen if frontrunner Andy Burnham runs unopposed. However, GBP may waver if rival candidates enter the race.

Euro (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the accounts from its latest interest rate decision this week. If the minutes suggest another rate hike remains possible, the euro (EUR) could find support.

US dollar (USD)

The Federal Reserve is also set to release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting this week. The US dollar (USD) may firm if policymakers adopted a hawkish tone at last month’s decision.

Australian dollar (AUD)

With Australian economic releases in short supply this week, the Australian dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in response to market risk appetite. Any shifts in sentiment could see the ‘Aussie’ fluctuate.

South African rand (ZAR)

South African data is also thin on the ground this week, potentially leaving the South African rand (ZAR) exposed to external drivers. Risk appetite, gold prices and USD movement could all spark choppy trade in ZAR.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada’s latest labour market figures could lift the Canadian dollar (CAD) at the end of the week, if they show unemployment held at its lowest level since the start of the year in June.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

For the New Zealand dollar (NZD), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday will be in focus. If the bank raises interest rates, as expected, NZD could strengthen. Conversely, an unexpected hold could see the ‘kiwi’ slump.


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Samuel Birnie

Contact Samuel Birnie


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